Canary in the Coal Mine (2)

The purpose of these posts is to regularily interview someone I caonsider a fairly typical Ontario Liberal voter who can be swayed by the campaigns. The idea is to follow the attitudes and perceptions of this person as a barometer to how the campaigns are going and what the composition of the government might be after 23 Jan.

The Canary is my Father. See the below posts for past info.

Canary in the Coal Mine

Canary in the Coal Mine (1)

Christmas to 8 Jan 2006. First week back.

My father did not pay much attention to the election over the holidays, which was to be expected. He reports that he has pretty much decided to vote Conservative, provided nothing significant happens in the next two weeks. I am assuming this would have to be something sever, such as proof that Stephen Harper is the Anti-Christ. From discussing it with him, Dad is feeling comfortable with the Conservatives and said "Give Harper a chance".

No issue raised by any party since after Christmas has resonated with him, nothing has made him reconsider his choice.

When I spoke to him today I asked him what he thinks the final result (seat tally) will be. He thinks a minority Conservative government with Conservatives 125 seats and Liberals 120 seats. He doesn't really care about the rest.

After talking to him, I mentioned that a new poll had just come out today (which he had not seen) which put the Conservatives ahead by 8 points. I am interested to see if this affects his thoughts next week. I am guessing that he is comfortable with a Conservative minority, one where the other parties could easily keep the Conservatives in check. If the Conservatives start to run away with it, his vote may change.

Not to repeat the usual MSM refrain, but I think Dad thinks exactly what newspapers such as the Toronto Star thinks he thinks. The Liberals have been bad, and my father thinks they need some time in opposition to learn their lesson. His vote is not a "I like the Conservatives" vote, but a "teach the Liberals a lesson" vote. If it starts to look as if that lesson may be too harsh (ie. Conservative majority) he may change his mind.

This week will be interesting, especially after the anticiated Liberal "dirty ads" come out.

Dad says he will watch the debates. I will report on his impressions.