No change. Still 210 pounds.
Definately a rut, although I missed the last two weeks of Yoga due to sick kids, snow days and unavoidable appointments. Also, I have not been goign to the gym.
I think I am going to start back up next week.
Monday, December 03, 2012
Monday, November 26, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
Resolutions - Day 308 - Week 44
No change. Still 210 pounds.
This week was a bit difficult. K was sick for part of it and we had to keep her away from J to minimize the chance of passing it along.
A failure from last week. I did not keep to the diet.
What else is there to do but try again?
This week was a bit difficult. K was sick for part of it and we had to keep her away from J to minimize the chance of passing it along.
A failure from last week. I did not keep to the diet.
What else is there to do but try again?
Monday, November 12, 2012
Resolutions - Day 301 - Week 43
No change. Still at 210 pounds.
For too long I have been stuck at this weight.
I was doing fairly well this week until Saturday when I came home hungry and gorged myself on ice cream and taco chips.
I will try a bit more discipline this week.
For too long I have been stuck at this weight.
I was doing fairly well this week until Saturday when I came home hungry and gorged myself on ice cream and taco chips.
I will try a bit more discipline this week.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
US Election Prediction
Happy Election Day, America
I do not usually write about politics on this blog, but it is an interest of mine. I have been following the US election quite closely for over a year now and will make a prediction on the outcome.
Most polls have suggested the US election will be very close. Some news outlets are saying it will be the closest in years (I guess they forgot about the 2000 election. How can it be closer than that?)
Rhetoric aside, polling has Obama and Romney at about even with 47-48% of the vote each.
My Prediction: Romney wins with between 290-320 electoral votes.
Most of the polls are wrong, and here is why:
Don't trust polls. Remember the 1980 election that was too close to call? Reagan won by a landslide. Or how about 2000, Bush v. Gore. They predicted Bush was going to win that one 400+ electoral votes to 90 something the day before the election. They got that one wrong.
Turnout Model. Many polls are using the 2008 turnout model, where groups thought most likely to vote for Democrats saw an increase in their turnout. If you look at the turnout in past elections, it is fairly consistent. 2008 is the outlier. Most polls are wrong because they assume more democrats will vote this year, as they did in 2008.
Enthusiasm Gap. The novelty of voting for a black President has worn off. There were likely a number of voters who won't be as enthusiastic to vote for him this time, since they did so in 2008. Also, there are a lot of Republicans who were so-so on McCain, but would crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama. Most polls don't take enthusiasm into account. Conservatives/Republicans are very concerned over what Obama's policies. I think we might seen a turnout model which is a reverse of 2008.
Competence. Obama stinks as President and everyone knows it.You can say that her took over a bad economy from Bush, but the guy did just about everything he could to make it worst or prevent a recovery. More taxes, stimulus, more regulation, uncertain regulation, all these things retard growth, not increase it.
Incumbent. The incumbent should have over 50% of the vote all the time. Obama has been stuck at 47-48% for months. You have to expect that the 5% or so of undecideds are going to go for the other guy. When an election is a month away and you have seen how the incumbent does the job for 4 years but you are still not sure you will vote for him, you will vote for the other guy.
Battleground States. Remember when Florida was a battleground state? A few months ago no one was talking about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania being battleground states, they were a sure Obama win. Now Romney is going to both. Of course, Obama's people say it's just to try and make it seem like they can win those states. Both campaigns spin everything, so watch what they do and not what they say. Notice Obama and his surrogates, like Bill Clinton, are spending time in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Resources are scarce. They would not spend them in those states if they did not think it was necessary.
Anecdotal Evidence. I read a lot of US political blogs and I find most interesting the reports from people who attend campaign rallies. All the reports from Romney events are about people waiting in line for hours, in cold and rain, packed venues and lots of enthusiasm. Obama's venues are always smaller than Romney's, numbers are always less then expected and much less they he did in the same state in 2008.
A final hats off to Dick Morris. Although he is an evil ex-Clintonite, he finally saw the light and made the bold prediction of a Romney landslide months ago, when most were too timid to stick their neck out. I respect that. His points made sense and hopefully he will get the recognition he deserves after today.
Good luck, America. Who you elect as President affects those of us in the rest of the world as well, so respect that and choose wisely.
I do not usually write about politics on this blog, but it is an interest of mine. I have been following the US election quite closely for over a year now and will make a prediction on the outcome.
Most polls have suggested the US election will be very close. Some news outlets are saying it will be the closest in years (I guess they forgot about the 2000 election. How can it be closer than that?)
Rhetoric aside, polling has Obama and Romney at about even with 47-48% of the vote each.
My Prediction: Romney wins with between 290-320 electoral votes.
Most of the polls are wrong, and here is why:
Don't trust polls. Remember the 1980 election that was too close to call? Reagan won by a landslide. Or how about 2000, Bush v. Gore. They predicted Bush was going to win that one 400+ electoral votes to 90 something the day before the election. They got that one wrong.
Turnout Model. Many polls are using the 2008 turnout model, where groups thought most likely to vote for Democrats saw an increase in their turnout. If you look at the turnout in past elections, it is fairly consistent. 2008 is the outlier. Most polls are wrong because they assume more democrats will vote this year, as they did in 2008.
Enthusiasm Gap. The novelty of voting for a black President has worn off. There were likely a number of voters who won't be as enthusiastic to vote for him this time, since they did so in 2008. Also, there are a lot of Republicans who were so-so on McCain, but would crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama. Most polls don't take enthusiasm into account. Conservatives/Republicans are very concerned over what Obama's policies. I think we might seen a turnout model which is a reverse of 2008.
Competence. Obama stinks as President and everyone knows it.You can say that her took over a bad economy from Bush, but the guy did just about everything he could to make it worst or prevent a recovery. More taxes, stimulus, more regulation, uncertain regulation, all these things retard growth, not increase it.
Incumbent. The incumbent should have over 50% of the vote all the time. Obama has been stuck at 47-48% for months. You have to expect that the 5% or so of undecideds are going to go for the other guy. When an election is a month away and you have seen how the incumbent does the job for 4 years but you are still not sure you will vote for him, you will vote for the other guy.
Battleground States. Remember when Florida was a battleground state? A few months ago no one was talking about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania being battleground states, they were a sure Obama win. Now Romney is going to both. Of course, Obama's people say it's just to try and make it seem like they can win those states. Both campaigns spin everything, so watch what they do and not what they say. Notice Obama and his surrogates, like Bill Clinton, are spending time in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Resources are scarce. They would not spend them in those states if they did not think it was necessary.
Anecdotal Evidence. I read a lot of US political blogs and I find most interesting the reports from people who attend campaign rallies. All the reports from Romney events are about people waiting in line for hours, in cold and rain, packed venues and lots of enthusiasm. Obama's venues are always smaller than Romney's, numbers are always less then expected and much less they he did in the same state in 2008.
A final hats off to Dick Morris. Although he is an evil ex-Clintonite, he finally saw the light and made the bold prediction of a Romney landslide months ago, when most were too timid to stick their neck out. I respect that. His points made sense and hopefully he will get the recognition he deserves after today.
Good luck, America. Who you elect as President affects those of us in the rest of the world as well, so respect that and choose wisely.
Monday, November 05, 2012
Resolutions - Day 294 - Week 42
No change. Still at 210 pounds.
I have not been focusing on the diet. This week, it's time to get back on track. I will be very strict and see what happens.
I have not been focusing on the diet. This week, it's time to get back on track. I will be very strict and see what happens.
Monday, October 29, 2012
My Journey to Become a Writer
I have decided to pursue a part time career in writing and editing. I will chronicle my journey on this blog.
Today I reached my first milestone in becoming a professional writer. Rejection.
I sent in a sample of a short 600+ word article to a website that is looking for writers. They replied that they think I need more experience. I think that is probably a nice way of saying that they think I suck. This hurts even more since the position was a volunteer one.
Rejection is part of being a writer, so I guess I got my cherry popped.
Resolutions - Day 287 - Week 41
Various issues prevent me from getting my weight for the last few weeks.
This week I am at 210 pounds. Starting to gain back what I lost. Need to focus again.
This week I am at 210 pounds. Starting to gain back what I lost. Need to focus again.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Date Night
Saturday the Wife and I had date night. We try to go out once a month, get away from the kids and have an adult conversation.
We were planning to see the movie Fun Size, as the Wife had won some advanced screening passes, but there was a mix up on the time so we missed it. It would have been interesting to see a movie before it is released, but I probably would not have enjoyed it as much as what we did see.
Instead, we went to the West Edmonton Mall and saw the movie Looper. It is a typical action drama with a bit of time travel. Both of us enjoyed it. I would recommend it to anyone who enjoys these types of movies and it was a good date night movie, as it was light on the time travel confusion, and more focused on the action/story. Any fans of time travel will note the flaws, and I found it funny that the director seemed to not want you to think about the flaws too much, as he has Bruce Willis say to Levitt when he asks about the paradox of time travel, "Don't worry about it, it's not important."
Before the movie, we had dinner at the Delux Burger Bar in the Mall. I was disappointed. This restaurant is focused on burgers, and while my burger was more fancy than one you would get at Five Guys, the quality was not there. My burger was dry and not juicy. If you are going to be a burger restaurant, you should get the meat right. The place was busy, but not so much that I thought the quality of the meal should suffer. Even the bacon on my burger was burnt on the ends, and I mean black burnt.
Five Guys was much, much better.
We were planning to see the movie Fun Size, as the Wife had won some advanced screening passes, but there was a mix up on the time so we missed it. It would have been interesting to see a movie before it is released, but I probably would not have enjoyed it as much as what we did see.
Instead, we went to the West Edmonton Mall and saw the movie Looper. It is a typical action drama with a bit of time travel. Both of us enjoyed it. I would recommend it to anyone who enjoys these types of movies and it was a good date night movie, as it was light on the time travel confusion, and more focused on the action/story. Any fans of time travel will note the flaws, and I found it funny that the director seemed to not want you to think about the flaws too much, as he has Bruce Willis say to Levitt when he asks about the paradox of time travel, "Don't worry about it, it's not important."
Before the movie, we had dinner at the Delux Burger Bar in the Mall. I was disappointed. This restaurant is focused on burgers, and while my burger was more fancy than one you would get at Five Guys, the quality was not there. My burger was dry and not juicy. If you are going to be a burger restaurant, you should get the meat right. The place was busy, but not so much that I thought the quality of the meal should suffer. Even the bacon on my burger was burnt on the ends, and I mean black burnt.
Five Guys was much, much better.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Biggest Internet Troll Exposed
This article by Adrien Chen from Gawker exposes the notorious Reddit mod/troll Violentacrez.
peach
This is not a topic I usually write about on this blog, but one that I find very interesting. I bit of background, Violentacrez is/was a moderator on Reddit and was responsible for some of its most noxious content, which you will have to follow the links to find out how noxious. The writer of the above article discovered his real identity and outed him in the above article.
I am not sure how I feel about this. If you were not aware, I use an alias on this blog. I try to be as truthful as possible about everything I write, with the exception of my name. I think this anonymity allows me to be more truthful. Using my real name might cause me to censor myself. There are things you think that you might not want your friends and family to know.
However, some of the stuff this guy posted was very vile. As a strong believer in free speech, I appreciate that there needs to be a forum where anything can be said, but the person who starts/moderates subforums titled "rapebait", "incest" and "chokeabitch", well that is not someone I would want to associate with.
As for outing Violentacrez, he is free to say what he wishes and to try to do it anonymously, while journalists are free to try and find out what his real name is. I don't think his real identity is important to the issue of what he says. Putting out your real identity tends to lend more credibility to what you say, but the identity of a person who speaks the truth is not essential to the truth of their speech. The same point is not more true because someone else says it.
Update: That was quick. Violentacrez Fired.
peach
This is not a topic I usually write about on this blog, but one that I find very interesting. I bit of background, Violentacrez is/was a moderator on Reddit and was responsible for some of its most noxious content, which you will have to follow the links to find out how noxious. The writer of the above article discovered his real identity and outed him in the above article.
I am not sure how I feel about this. If you were not aware, I use an alias on this blog. I try to be as truthful as possible about everything I write, with the exception of my name. I think this anonymity allows me to be more truthful. Using my real name might cause me to censor myself. There are things you think that you might not want your friends and family to know.
However, some of the stuff this guy posted was very vile. As a strong believer in free speech, I appreciate that there needs to be a forum where anything can be said, but the person who starts/moderates subforums titled "rapebait", "incest" and "chokeabitch", well that is not someone I would want to associate with.
As for outing Violentacrez, he is free to say what he wishes and to try to do it anonymously, while journalists are free to try and find out what his real name is. I don't think his real identity is important to the issue of what he says. Putting out your real identity tends to lend more credibility to what you say, but the identity of a person who speaks the truth is not essential to the truth of their speech. The same point is not more true because someone else says it.
Update: That was quick. Violentacrez Fired.
Monday, October 08, 2012
Resolutions - Day 266 - Week 38
No weight this week.
This was a chaotic week. J is still in the hospital and the rest of us spent the week in a hotel, as they were fixing our kitchen floor, which was damaged a few months ago due to water leaking from a broken dishwasher.
Hopefully things will be getting back to normal.
This was a chaotic week. J is still in the hospital and the rest of us spent the week in a hotel, as they were fixing our kitchen floor, which was damaged a few months ago due to water leaking from a broken dishwasher.
Hopefully things will be getting back to normal.
Monday, October 01, 2012
Resolutions- Day 259 - Week 37
Still at 205 pounds. No change.
J went into the hospital this week, so I cheating quite a bit. Any change in my routine of this type makes it hard to keep to the diet. When J is in the hospital I spend a significant portion of the day driving around and visiting her. I should be happy to maintain.
J went into the hospital this week, so I cheating quite a bit. Any change in my routine of this type makes it hard to keep to the diet. When J is in the hospital I spend a significant portion of the day driving around and visiting her. I should be happy to maintain.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Resolutions - Day 252- Week 36
Back down to 205. Lost one pound.
Time to get back on track. Weight is moving in the right direction, although I have not been following the diet very strictly.
Time to get back on track. Weight is moving in the right direction, although I have not been following the diet very strictly.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Resolutions - Day 245 - Week 35
Up to 206 punds this week. Gained 1 pound.
I am still not following the diet very closely. Also, I have not got back into my workout routine, although I have been keeping up with Yoga. It's September, school has starting, it's time to back into the swing ot things. Time to lose the last 20 pounds and get to my goal weight.
I am still not following the diet very closely. Also, I have not got back into my workout routine, although I have been keeping up with Yoga. It's September, school has starting, it's time to back into the swing ot things. Time to lose the last 20 pounds and get to my goal weight.
Monday, September 10, 2012
Resolutions - Day 238 - Week 34
205 pounds this week. No change from last week
I have to get back into the diet and exercise. I have just been sort of floating along, not focused on my goals. I guess it's good that I have not really gained anything since our vacation.
Some small bonus.
I have to get back into the diet and exercise. I have just been sort of floating along, not focused on my goals. I guess it's good that I have not really gained anything since our vacation.
Some small bonus.
Monday, September 03, 2012
Resolutions - Day 231 - Week 33
205 pounds this week. A gain of one pound.
I cannot feel too badly about this, as I have not been following the diet or exercise plan. I am surprised it was only 1 pound.
I cannot feel too badly about this, as I have not been following the diet or exercise plan. I am surprised it was only 1 pound.
Monday, August 27, 2012
Resolutions - Day 224 - Week 32
204 pounds. A gain of about 4 pounds.
Not bad, considering we were on vacation for two weeks and I was not able to exercise or follow my diet closely.
I am surprised that I only gained 4 pounds over two weeks. This leads me to think that perhaps that stuff may be true about being able to reset what the body thinks is its proper weight.
Not bad, considering we were on vacation for two weeks and I was not able to exercise or follow my diet closely.
I am surprised that I only gained 4 pounds over two weeks. This leads me to think that perhaps that stuff may be true about being able to reset what the body thinks is its proper weight.
Monday, August 13, 2012
Resolutions - Day 210 - Week 30
We will be on vacation for the next 2 weeks. I will not be tracking my weight during this time. I hope I don't gain too much.
Monday, August 06, 2012
Resolution - Day 203 - Week 29
I have not been keeping up with the weight loss reports as closely as I should. We are going on vacation next week and I will be off my program for that time.
But some good news. I hit my target of 200 pounds. I have lost 28 pounds since I started this program. Another 15 to go to hit my target weight of about 185 pounds.
Hopefully I will not gain too much over the holiday.
But some good news. I hit my target of 200 pounds. I have lost 28 pounds since I started this program. Another 15 to go to hit my target weight of about 185 pounds.
Hopefully I will not gain too much over the holiday.
Monday, July 02, 2012
Resolutions - Day 168 - Week 24
203 pounds. No change.
Yoga seems to help, perhaps not enough to lose weight by itself, but at least to maintain.
Yoga seems to help, perhaps not enough to lose weight by itself, but at least to maintain.
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