US Election Prediction

Happy Election Day, America

I do not usually write about politics on this blog, but it is an interest of mine. I have been following the US election quite closely for over a year now and will make a prediction on the outcome.

Most polls have suggested the US election will be very close. Some news outlets are saying it will be the closest in years (I guess they forgot about the 2000 election. How can it be closer than that?)

Rhetoric aside, polling has Obama and Romney at about even with 47-48% of the vote each. 

My Prediction: Romney wins with between 290-320 electoral votes. 

Most of the polls are wrong, and here is why:

Don't trust polls. Remember the 1980 election that was too close to call? Reagan won by a landslide. Or how about 2000, Bush v. Gore. They predicted Bush was going to win that one 400+ electoral votes to 90 something the day before the election. They got that one wrong.

Turnout Model. Many polls are using the 2008 turnout model, where groups thought most likely to vote for Democrats saw an increase in their turnout. If you look at the turnout in past elections, it is fairly consistent. 2008 is the outlier. Most polls are wrong because they assume more democrats will vote this year, as they did in 2008.

Enthusiasm Gap. The novelty of voting for a black President has worn off. There were likely a number of voters who won't be as enthusiastic to vote for him this time, since they did so in 2008. Also, there are a lot of Republicans who were so-so on McCain, but would crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama. Most polls don't take enthusiasm into account. Conservatives/Republicans are very concerned over what Obama's policies. I think we might seen a turnout model which is a reverse of 2008.

Competence. Obama stinks as President and everyone knows it.You can say that her took over a bad economy from Bush, but the guy did just about everything he could to make it worst or prevent a recovery. More taxes, stimulus, more regulation, uncertain regulation, all these things retard growth, not increase it.

Incumbent. The incumbent should have over 50% of the vote all the time. Obama has been stuck at 47-48% for months. You have to expect that the 5% or so of undecideds are going to go for the other guy. When an election is a month away and you have seen how the incumbent does the job for 4 years but you are still not sure you will vote for him, you will vote for the other guy.

Battleground States. Remember when Florida was a battleground state? A few months ago no one was talking about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania being battleground states, they were a sure Obama win. Now Romney is going to both. Of course, Obama's people say it's just to try and make it seem like they can win those states. Both campaigns spin everything, so watch what they do and not what they say. Notice Obama and his surrogates, like Bill Clinton, are spending time in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Resources are scarce. They would not spend them in those states if they did not think it was necessary.

Anecdotal Evidence. I read a lot of US political blogs and I find most interesting the reports from people who attend campaign rallies. All the reports from Romney events are about people waiting in line for hours, in cold and rain, packed venues and lots of enthusiasm. Obama's venues are always smaller than Romney's, numbers are always less then expected and much less they he did in the same state in 2008. 

A final hats off to Dick Morris. Although he is an evil ex-Clintonite, he finally saw the light and made the bold prediction of a Romney landslide months ago, when most were too timid to stick their neck out. I respect that. His points made sense and hopefully he will get the recognition he deserves after today.

Good luck, America. Who you elect as President affects those of us in the rest of the world as well, so respect that and choose wisely.